The Odds Are 1:20,000
That A Public Company Will
Reach One Billion in Sales.
The Odds are 1:400
That A Private Company Will
Reach One Billion in Sales.
David G. Thomson in BluePrint To A Billion -- 7 Essentials To Achieve Exponential Growth notes that the chances of an idea becoming a business is 1:50.
Chances are 1:20 a business goes to an IPO. And 1:20 that IPO will reach revenue of one billion.
Taken together, the odds of a public company reaching $1 billion in revenue is 1:20,000.
But take a look at this ...
It's much easier to take a private company and build that into a $1 billion revenue.
Odds are 1:400 according to Thomson (study based on 7,454 companies, of which, 387 were identified by $1 billion dollar exponential growth).
odds for public company 1:20,000
odds for private company 1:400
And what characterizes these fast-growth companies, regardless of industry, is their ability to manifest "super-compounding" exponential revenue growth.
"Like a rocket, these companies need to be on the right flight trajectory and have the speed to break the pull of gravity -- to escape being a mediocre, low-orbiting projectile". David G. Thomson
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